Don’t worry too much about the Oilers’ slow start – except for one critical issue.
For fans of “Dr. Manhattan,” here’s a fitting comparison:
It’s October 2023, and the Edmonton Oilers are a Stanley Cup favorite. Yet, they can’t win a game.
Fast forward to October 2024: once again, the Oilers are a Stanley Cup favorite. And once again, they struggle to win.
Last season, the Oilers hit rock bottom with a 2-9-1 record by November. Head coach Jay Woodcroft was fired, and Kris Knoblauch took over, guiding the team to a dramatic turnaround that saw them reach Game 7 of the Stanley Cup Final.
Even before Woodcroft’s firing, signs of a comeback were visible. The Oilers led the NHL in 5-on-5 offensive metrics and expected goals, showing they were controlling games, but just struggling with finishing. Eventually, their luck turned, and they caught fire.
This season, after a 0-3-0 start and being outscored 15-3, the Oilers are still leading the NHL in 5-on-5 shot attempts and scoring chances. They also have the sixth-lowest expected goals against. But, like last season, they’re being held back by a dismal shooting percentage of just 3.19%.
So while this poor start may seem alarming, it’s easy to believe a team with Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl, and others will find their scoring touch soon enough.
However, there’s one part of their game that should cause concern: their goaltending. Last season, their league-worst save percentage of .860 was a major issue. This season, it’s even worse at .783 through three games. Stuart Skinner and Calvin Pickard have struggled badly.
While it might seem too early to panic over just three games, Skinner’s larger track record matters. If he had performed at even an average level last October, Woodcroft might have kept his job. When the Oilers surged later under Knoblauch, Skinner was in the midst of a hot streak.
Looking at last season’s month-by-month breakdown, Edmonton’s expected goal share was consistently among the best in the league, but their save percentage fluctuated wildly. When their goaltending was strong, the team won. When it wasn’t, they struggled.
This season looks to be following a similar pattern: the Oilers are driving play well, but Skinner and Pickard aren’t stopping enough shots.
Skinner has shown he can be great at times – he got the Oilers to Game 7 of the Cup Final – but he also has long stretches of inconsistency. His save percentage has swung wildly month to month, making him one of the most unpredictable No. 1 goalies in the league.
Ultimately, the Oilers will rise in the standings when they combine their strong play-driving with better goaltending. But relying too much on Skinner’s performance is risky.
So, don’t panic about the Oilers as a whole. But do be concerned about their goaltending. Without stability in net, their path to the Stanley Cup will be difficult.
