The Toronto Blue Jays’ 2024 MLB season can only be described as a major letdown. While fans and analysts alike have debated the primary reasons behind their downfall—some blaming an underwhelming offense, others pointing fingers at bullpen struggles—a new Statcast revelation has brought another culprit into the spotlight: their dismal baserunning metrics.
Statcast has introduced two advanced metrics—Extra Bases Taken (XBT) and Baserunning Run Value (BRRV)—that provide fresh insights into baserunning efficiency. Unsurprisingly, the Blue Jays found themselves at the bottom of the league in both categories. They ranked 27th with a -9 in Extra Bases Taken and an even more abysmal 29th with a -14 in Baserunning Run Value.
What Are These Metrics?
Extra Bases Taken measures how effectively baserunners capitalize on opportunities to advance extra bases, while also evaluating outfielders’ ability to prevent such advances. This metric factors in runner speed, basepath positioning, outfielder arm strength, and the distance between the outfielder, ball, and base.
Baserunning Run Value provides a comprehensive look at a baserunner’s impact, combining stolen base attempts and non-stealing baserunning plays. Each play is assigned a success probability, considering the opposing pitcher and catcher for steals or the same criteria as XBT for non-stealing opportunities. Success or failure on these plays is translated into a run value: a stolen base adds +0.2 runs, while a caught stealing subtracts -0.45 runs.
A Grim Picture for Toronto
The Blue Jays’ league-worst values in these metrics paint a grim picture. Not only did their baserunning fail to generate runs, but their inability to stop opponents from exploiting the basepaths compounded the problem. Even when their offense and pitching showed flashes of promise, their inefficiency on the bases sabotaged their chances of victory.
If there’s any solace, it’s that the New York Yankees performed even worse, ranking dead last in both categories. However, unlike the Blue Jays, the Yankees’ powerhouse offense and elite pitching compensated for their baserunning woes, propelling them to the World Series.
For the Blue Jays, the path forward is clear: they can no longer afford to ignore the critical role baserunning plays in their overall success. If they hope to turn things around in future seasons, dramatic improvements on the basepaths will be non-negotiable.
