Deadline Divergence: How the Twins’ Inaction and the Padres’ Aggression Shaped Their Seasons
The Minnesota Twins’ choice to remain inactive at the trade deadline, despite obvious bullpen issues, has proven costly. In contrast, the San Diego Padres took an aggressive approach, bolstering their pitching staff. The outcome? One team is excelling, while the other is struggling to keep its playoff hopes alive.
Leading up to the 2024 deadline, the Twins had a glaring bullpen problem that everyone could see. Brock Stewart’s injury was a major warning sign—he got hurt, returned, and then got injured again. Similarly, Chris Paddack, who had been moved to the bullpen before, followed the same pattern of reinjury. Stewart later underwent surgery, leaving doubts about his future with the team. Meanwhile, Caleb Thielbar, once a reliable left-hander, began to falter.
Despite these red flags, the Twins did almost nothing. With a rich farm system and a clear need for bullpen reinforcements, they only added Trevor Richards, a forgettable move. The real reason for their inaction was financial—ownership didn’t want to spend, likely scarred by past failures like the Jorge López trade.
Since then, this conservative approach has spectacularly backfired. The Twins’ bullpen now ranks 22nd in ERA and 27th in WPA, with only a few teams performing worse. As a result, they’re barely hanging on in the Wild Card race.
On the other side of the country, the Padres were in a similar situation. Their bullpen ranked just behind the Twins’ at the time, and both teams were fighting for playoff spots. But unlike the Twins, the Padres acted boldly. They acquired two top-tier relievers, Jason Adam and Tanner Scott, sacrificing prospects but trusting their scouting. This gamble has paid off. Adam has a minuscule 0.78 ERA in 23 innings, while Scott boasts a 2.45 ERA. The Padres’ bullpen now ranks 5th since the deadline.
While the Twins have slumped to a 21-25 record post-deadline, the Padres have posted the best record in the league. The difference? One team stayed put, and the other went all in.
The Twins may point to past missteps as a reason for their caution, but at some point, caution turns into cowardice. The López trade from 2022 stung, but for every miss, there’s a potential hit, like Jason Adam or Tanner Scott. The Padres took that chance, and it’s paying off.
The Twins knew they needed bullpen depth with Stewart out and uncertainty surrounding other relievers like Kody Funderburk and Justin Topa. Instead of preparing for those potential losses, they hoped everything would work out. It didn’t.
Now, the Twins are struggling to secure a playoff spot, while the Padres are confidently heading into October with a strengthened bullpen. The Twins’ failure to invest at the deadline has left them in this position. A more aggressive strategy could have set them up for a playoff run, but they missed their opportunity.
This isn’t just about what might have been—it’s about what should have been. The Padres’ success shows why being bold at the trade deadline matters. They trusted their scouts, made decisive moves, and are now reaping the benefits. Meanwhile, the Twins played it safe, and they’re paying the price.
