A showdown between Miami and Florida is set to be one of the highlights of college football’s Week 1 for the 2024 season. Beyond the in-state bragging rights, this game is crucial for the perception of both programs and their coaches, Florida’s Billy Napier and Miami’s Mario Cristobal, as they enter their third season at the helm.
Billy Napier took over Florida’s program in 2022 facing some roster challenges, and with an 11-14 record over the past two years, he’s under pressure. Another losing season could end his tenure, although the roster is in better shape now. With a tough schedule ahead, the Gators have little room for mistakes.
Miami improved from 5-7 to 7-6 in Cristobal’s second year, but the season was marred by a late-game mishap against Georgia Tech. With another strong recruiting class, high expectations, and a wide-open ACC, Miami is poised to compete for a conference title and make significant progress in the win column.
Historically, Miami leads the series 29-27, with Florida winning the last meeting in 2019 by 24-20 in Orlando. The upcoming game will be held at Ben Hill Griffin Stadium in Gainesville, Fla., on Saturday, Aug. 31, at 3:30 p.m. ET, televised on ABC. Miami is favored by 2.5 points, with an over/under of 54.5.
**Why Miami Will Win**
Miami’s roster looks stronger, thanks to Cristobal’s recruiting and transfer efforts. With Washington State transfer Cam Ward potentially emerging as the ACC’s top quarterback and a solid offensive lineup, Miami’s offense could be explosive this season. Defensively, the Hurricanes have an edge, as coordinator Lance Guidry’s unit outperformed Florida’s last season. Miami also bolstered its defense with key transfers, making them a formidable opponent.
**Why Florida Will Win**
Although Miami is solid, their secondary lost several key players. If Florida’s offensive line can hold, quarterback Graham Mertz and his receivers could exploit Miami’s secondary. While Miami’s rush defense was strong last season, Florida managed to gain ground against ranked teams, and with running back Montrell Johnson returning from injury, they could find some success. Florida’s defense struggled last year, but with new additions and a new voice in the coaching staff, there’s hope for improvement.
**Final Analysis**
This is one of the most challenging games to predict in Week 1. On paper, Miami appears to be the stronger team, but it’s uncertain if their new roster pieces will gel in time. Florida’s defense needs to improve significantly for Napier’s squad to make strides. While Florida has its defensive issues, a few clutch drives by Mertz and the home-field advantage in the Swamp could tip the scales in a close game.
