The ESPN Football Power Index (FPI) has projected the outcomes for every Miami football game in the 2024 season. Miami starts the season ranked 23rd in the FPI, slightly lower than its 19th place ranking in both the Associated Press Top 25 and USA Today Coaches Poll. While some national rankings place Miami higher, the FPI offers specific projections for their season performance.
According to the FPI, Miami is expected to achieve about 8.2 wins and 4.0 losses. The team has a 1.1% chance to win all of its games, a 90.4% chance of securing six wins, a 9.9% chance to win the ACC, an 18.2% chance to reach the College Football Playoff, a 1.9% chance to make the National Title game, and a 0.6% chance to win it all.
Miami kicks off the season against Florida, who is ranked 20th in the FPI and projected to have a challenging season with 5.9 wins and 6.1 losses, facing what is expected to be the toughest schedule in the nation. Although Miami is the point spread favorite, the FPI gives them only a 42.7% chance to win in Gainesville. The Miami vs. Florida game on August 31 is one of the marquee matchups of the first week.
Miami’s home opener is on September 7 against Florida A&M (FAMU), an FCS program that isn’t ranked in the FPI. However, FAMU is ranked 30th in the preseason FCS rankings and first among historically black colleges and universities (HBCUs). Miami has a 99% chance of winning this game.
In week three, Miami will host Ball State, ranked 123rd in the preseason FPI. Ball State is projected to have 4.9 wins and 7.2 losses, with a 36.2% chance to qualify for a bowl game and a 3.7% chance to win the Mid-American Conference. Miami has a 94% chance of winning this matchup.
South Florida is ranked 88th in the FPI and is projected to have 5.9 wins and 6.2 losses. The Bulls have a 56.8% chance of winning six games, a 5.4% chance to win the American Athletic Conference, and a 1.7% chance of making the College Football Playoff. Miami is favored with an 80.3% chance to win when they face South Florida.
Interestingly, the FPI only predicts Miami to win five of their eight ACC games, which will be analyzed separately. Overall, the consensus for Miami’s 2024 season is higher than the FPI’s projections, with most expecting nine or ten wins.
