Two more stars have joined the list of injured players, as both Braves third baseman Austin Riley and Diamondbacks second baseman Ketel Marte were placed on the 10-day injured list this Monday.
Riley, who had been on a hot streak after a slow start to the season, was pulled from Sunday’s game against the Angels when a 97-mph sinker from Jack Kochanowicz struck his wrist. Meanwhile, Marte’s injury, a re-aggravated sprained ankle, is less severe but comes at a crucial time as Arizona vies for a playoff spot.
Recent data I analyzed showed the Braves ranked second in lost potential value due to injuries, just behind the Dodgers. Riley, a key player for Atlanta with MVP votes in each of the last three seasons, hasn’t had his best year, posting a .256/.322/.461 slash line and 2.4 WAR—his lowest since his 2021 breakout.
However, he’s been essential to the Braves’ lineup lately, especially as the team has struggled with other injuries and offensive slumps. His numbers were at a season-low .220/.288/.330 in mid-June, and he had gone over a month without a home run, having only hit three by that point. But since June 13, Riley has been the Braves’ top hitter, smashing 16 home runs and leading the team in WAR.
An MRI on Monday confirmed Riley’s wrist is broken, sidelining him for 6-8 weeks. This means his 2024 season is likely over unless the Braves advance deep into the playoffs. The timing is particularly bad for Atlanta, as they face the division-leading Phillies in seven games over the next week and a half—a stretch that may represent their last chance to reclaim the NL East. Although the Braves have won five of their last seven games, they’re barely holding onto the final Wild Card spot, just 1.5 games ahead of the Mets and 3.5 in front of the Giants.
In a bit of fortunate timing, Gio Urshela became available in free agency after being released by the Detroit Tigers on Sunday, and the Braves quickly signed him to a major league deal. However, Urshela has struggled this season, which is why no one else picked up the remainder of his $1.5 million contract. After a peak performance from 2019 to 2022, during which he posted a 118 wRC+ and 8.1 WAR, Urshela’s production has declined, particularly after a fractured pelvis in 2023. This year, he’s hitting just .243/.286/.333.
While I believe Nacho Alvarez Jr. would have been a better replacement despite his unimpressive debut, Atlanta opted for the more experienced Urshela over Luke Williams, with the possibility of Whit Merrifield stepping in if Ozzie Albies returns in September. Without Riley’s injury, ZiPS projected the Braves had a 73% chance of holding off the Mets and Giants to make the playoffs.
Replacing Riley with Urshela drops that to 68%, while relying mainly on Williams would reduce it further to 67%. Despite Urshela’s modest projection, paying $400,000 for even a 1% increase in playoff chances is a reasonable gamble. To make room for Urshela, A.J. Minter, recovering from hip surgery, was moved to the 60-day IL, though this doesn’t impact the team’s projections since I had already assumed Minter would contribute minimally, if at all, this season.
Marte’s situation is less dire. He originally sprained his ankle on August 10 following a slide into second base by Garrett Stubbs. The Diamondbacks had been cautious, using him sparingly, but they’ve now decided to give him time to fully recover, hoping for a quick return.
Like Riley’s, Marte’s injury comes at a pivotal moment. After a slow start, the Diamondbacks have become one of the hottest teams in baseball, even making the Dodgers uncomfortable at the top of the NL West. Marte has been on a tear since June, hitting .333/.422/.652 with 20 homers, ranking second in the NL with 3.9 WAR during that stretch. His performance, combined with Arizona’s surge, had him in the MVP conversation.
Assuming he only needs a brief IL stint, the downgrade to Kevin Newman isn’t expected to significantly hurt the Diamondbacks’ playoff odds, which ZiPS still puts at 90%, just a 0.5% drop from before the injury. Ideally, Marte could return in time for a crucial four-game series against the Dodgers next week, the last chance Arizona has to directly challenge their division rival.
While the injuries to Riley and Marte don’t spell disaster for their teams, they do make the path forward more difficult. But, as they say, no one ever promised it would be easy.
