Rockets Need a Significant Fourth-Year Leap
The Houston Rockets are counting on a major improvement from one of their fourth-year players next season. But how much of a leap can realistically be expected? To gauge this, it’s useful to examine recent examples among current NBA stars who made significant strides in their fourth year and consider whether any of the young Rockets can follow suit.
Alperen Sengun and Jalen Green: Pivotal Players
Alperen Sengun nearly earned All-Star recognition in his third year, but for the Rockets to compete in the tough Western Conference next season, “nearly” won’t be enough. The player who needs to make the biggest leap is Jalen Green. Green’s production slightly declined from his second to third year, which was more due to a shift in coaching philosophy rather than a drop in his skills. Although Green showed improvement in his decision-making, the team’s focus on winning meant that he had to adapt to a new role. If Green can prove that his late-season performance was not a fluke, he might regain his offensive leadership and significantly boost his output.
Both Green and Sengun are talented players aiming to reach star status in their fourth year. Following the trend of recent Most Improved Player awards, it’s clear that any comparison should be made with current stars or former stars.
Learning from the Best: James Harden’s Example
James Harden, who made one of the most significant fourth-year leaps among active players, offers a high standard. However, his leap was unique because it coincided with his move to Houston from Oklahoma City, where he transitioned from Sixth Man of the Year to a full-time starter. Harden’s numbers jumped dramatically, and he became a first-time All-Star. This kind of leap is likely out of reach for Sengun and Green, as they’ve already had significant roles in the team. For Sengun, further improvement will depend largely on internal growth and skill development, particularly in shooting.
Green’s Opportunity for Growth
Last season, Green saw his offensive role reduced, but if he can demonstrate consistency, he could reclaim it and potentially see a notable increase in his production. Most significant leaps occur due to changes in the player’s environment, and Green might benefit more from this than Sengun.
The Case for Team Dynamics: Curry and Ellis
Stephen Curry’s fourth-year leap came after Monta Ellis, his backcourt competitor, left the team. Curry’s improved performance helped the Warriors double their wins. This scenario raises questions about the synergy between Green and Sengun. While they don’t have the same positional overlap as Curry and Ellis, their development will be interlinked. For the Rockets, trading one of them is not the answer, as both can potentially complement each other.
Giannis Antetokounmpo’s Path to Stardom
Giannis Antetokounmpo made a remarkable leap in his fourth year, with across-the-board statistical improvements that led to his first All-Star selection and Most Improved Player award. His situation was unique, as it didn’t involve major changes in his team or coaching staff, but rather his personal growth. Sengun, like Giannis, entered the NBA as a relatively raw talent and has shown steady improvement. While Sengun may not undergo a physical transformation like Giannis, his dedication to improving his game could lead to a significant leap.
Comparisons with Nikola Jokic
Sengun has been compared to Nikola Jokic, who also made gradual improvements in his early years. Jokic’s most notable leap came after his fourth season, when he won MVP, but his progression between years three and four was more modest. For Sengun, making small but crucial improvements, such as enhancing his defensive skills and communication, could have a significant impact on the team’s performance, even if the leap isn’t as dramatic as Jokic’s.
The Rockets’ Outlook
Looking at the most notable fourth-year leaps among current stars, it’s clear that environmental changes often play a crucial role. The Rockets have taken a cautious approach this offseason, meaning a dramatic leap for either Green or Sengun might be a lot to ask for. However, both players are motivated to improve, and the Rockets will need one or both to make strides if they hope to significantly improve their standing in the Western Conference.
